2018 Rookie 1v1 Report

By: Jerry Bollinger

                Jerry: Here I am at the desk of WBA guru and GM of the Miami Xtreme to learn what kind of research an organization does to evaluate the incoming draft class. So that is my big question to Brent. I will just sit here and let him talk.

                Brent: Well thank you Jerry. You have always been good to the Miami organization and have been a leader in your industry for many years. You are the only beat writer that consistently produces interesting work. It is a pleasure to have you here.

                Jerry: Well said I couldn’t agree more.

                Brent: Let me start by saying that every year you know drafting is just a crap shoot. You certainly know who the better players are and a good idea where the good potential is, but in the end anything can happen. Here in the organization, we have a series of formulas that we like to use to evaluate a player and his capabilities. Let’s start with the media report. This is the general report that the media puts out for all to see. They assign grade values to the different attributes of a player A+ being the best score and F- the worst. They also assign a color value to the players’ current ability and his potential. Those colors follow the rainbow colors start with Red as the worst up to Purple as the best. For the most part the media gets it right, but there are times that they are very wrong. Fortunately we have our own scouts who actually understand what to look for that the media does not.

                Jerry: What do you mean by that last statement? What does the media not understand?

                Brent: I will give you a perfect example. Currently, the media has Kenyatta Davidson as the best overall player. We have Bobo Reynolds as #1 and Kenyatta at #2. What the media doesn’t realize is that Bobo has great defensive and rebounding potential which is exactly what you want in a big man. Not to mention; he can make his free throws. But because he is not a natural scorer, the media discounts him as a player. The media doesn’t consider his natural athleticism. In a draft where defense is pretty much non-existent, in our opinion Bobo should go #1 overall. I should also mention that I really like Guihem Lamerand.

                We openly publish a document each season known as the Brent Rookie Report that gives a pretty detailed ranking of all players. We give each player two scores; a POT score which is where we think their potential is; and an RTP or ‘Ready To Play’ score which is where we think a players ability currently is. Typically the first 15 to 20 picks of the draft focus on the potential score of a player. The rest of the first round generally focuses on players that may become a decent backup someday. And the whole second round is focused on who they can get to play for their d-league team.

                Here is the top 15 board according to the Miami coaches and scouts:

                Player:                                  Pos         POT                        RTP

  1. Bobo Reynolds PF           5                   1223.6
  2. Guilhem Lamerand SF           2                   1284.8
  3. Kenyatta Davidson SF           2                   1306.6
  4. Roylen Fillum SG          5                   1235.8
  5. Omar Rozier SF           2                   1295.3
  6. Hancho Durrant PF           5                   1219.6
  7. Blaise Godin PF           8                   1297.8
  8. Ermin Zeleznik SF           2                   1302.9
  9. Arne Ott SG          1356                       4
  10. Stretch Armstrong SF           5                   1303.5
  11. Wimpy Critchfield C             8                   1186.7
  12. Benjamin Deletombe C             5                   1270.8
  13. Donald Wyman SG          8                   1306.4
  14. Brice Oliver PG          1327                       1277
  15. Clinton Baker SF           8                   1231.2

Just a note: I did move Bobo from the #3 spot to the #1. Even though his Brent scores still have him at #3, here in the organization we understand that the scoring system is still not perfect and some abstract analysis that can’t be interpreted with a mathematical formula must also be considered. It is also worthy to note that there are two players (Wimpy Crutchfield; and Hancho Durrant) that a team will not get any production out of them during their rookie contract. To us, this means that despite their great potential, they should really go back and play another 2 or 3 years in college. It also means that they are a wasted draft pick. But we leave them in the list simply because we know there are teams out there that are naïve enough to blow their lottery pick and select them anyway.

                Now lets talk about the late first round and second round. I like to now pay attention to the RTP score. I know that typically these players are an as-is selection. Which means we don’t really expect them to grow into greatness. They will be, at best, backup players and many of them will go spend a couple seasons in the d-league. Here is my list of those players in the order I believe they will be drafted:

                Player                                   Pos         RTP                        POT

  1. Lamar Cox PG          2                   1267.2
  2. Mel Chong PG          6                   1268.5
  3. Gervais Calloart SF           2                   1275.5
  4. Lon Johnson SG          4                   1300.8
  5. Frank Caines SG          2                   1256.2
  6. Neville Kahler SG          9                   1285.5
  7. Kenneth Ruble SG          4                   1275.5
  8. Bennie Bryant PG          5                   1242.5
  9. David Poland SF           1                   1249.8
  10. Jae McChesney SG          5                   1248.2
  11. Daniel Stevenson PG          8                   1248.5
  12. Hassan Pomeroy SG          5                   1252.5
  13. Thomas Williams SF           5                   1218.8
  14. Baldomero Menendez SG          9                   1229.2
  15. Pearl McGarry SF           5                   1238.5
  16. Doug Davis SG          5                   1204.2
  17. Randal Ramirez PF           9                   1289.2
  18. Robert Ferguson SF           9                   1204.2
  19. Shelton Britton PG          2                   1254.2
  20. Robert Bobb PG          2                   1264.2

Notice this time I am looking at their RTP score which is now the first numbered column. A couple of players that I really like in this list are Mel Chong and Doug Davis. I like Chong simply because he can actually come in and play and be a great backup for some average teams like Seattle or Los Angeles. Or he could even start for some of the really bad teams like Salt Lake or Albecete. I’ll talk more about Doug Davis later.

                Now let’s talk about making the best out of the 2nd round and using the rookie combine to find some of the hidden talent that most people just don’t see. This is where the expertise of our organization comes in and I am going to reveal some of those secrets today.

                As we all know, the rookie combine consists of a 1v1 tournament where each player will play 7 games. The player matching from round to round follows the Swiss style format of matching players. Basically this means that each round you will play against someone else that currently has about the same record that you do. The advantage of this format is that it lets the real talent bubble up to the top of the pairings list and so by the 7th round the two best players will end up facing off with each other.

                Andrew Ammons won the combine tournament this year which I find very interesting. You look at his scouting report and you would think that he doesn’t even deserve to be in the WBA, but yet he took down every other opponent he faced. So that tells us that maybe we have either misjudged his ability, or he is extremely lucky and had great shot selection that day. With further examination of his statistics for the day we find that he had over .600 3pt percentage which translates to a .900 3pt efficiency. Ultimately his TS% was .571. Not bad for a player that normally would be overlooked. This is certainly a player that the Xtreme would use a 2nd pick to take a chance on.

                Here is the list of players and their calculated stats that you don’t get from just the regular box scores:

Player                                   Pos         3PT Eff  TS%        Orb        Drb         Blk          Stl           F              Opp Pt

  • Shaggy Woodburn SG          825     0.581     1.6          2.9          0.0          4.9          8.6          13.3
  • Lon Johnson                 SG          693     0.575     2.4          2.4          0.0          4.4          3.4          13.7
  • Andrew Ammons SG          917     0.571     2.0          2.6          0.0          6.6          8.3          14.0
  • Gary Williams                 PF           000     0.291     2.7          3.1          3.4          4.4          6.9          14.6
  • Daron Hylton                 PF           000     0.303     2.1          4.9          6.7          4.7          12.3        14.6
  • Ivan Vaughan                 C             000     0.227     2.6          5.0          5.0          6.3          8.7          14.9
  • Fred Hollis                 SF           000     0.231     3.1          5.3          0.0          5.7          9.3          15.0
  • Robert Ferguson SF           986     0.580     1.9          4.0          0.0          4.4          6.0          15.1
  • Jack Owings                 PF           750     0.473     1.7          3.3          2.6          4.1          7.3          15.1
  • Jamal James                 SG          693     0.564     2.0          3.3          0.0          6.0          5.4          15.4
  • Rumeal Grant                 PG          626     0.431     2.9          4.0          0.0          4.3          5.9          15.6
  • Kenyatta Davidson SF           626     0.563     1.4          3.3          0.0          5.0          7.1          15.7
  • Stumpy Goodrich SG          401     0.504     1.9          3.4          0.0          4.9          6.3          15.7
  • David Davis                 SF           750     0.510     2.1          3.1          0.0          6.0          7.6          15.9
  • Harold Malloy                 SG          750     0.549     2.3          2.4          0.0          5.9          7.3          15.9
  • Randal Ramirez PF           000     0.360     1.3          3.6          6.4          3.4          7.4          16.0
  • Harris Villagomez PF           000     0.340     1.4          3.6          5.3          4.9          7.6          16.1
  • Paco Astacio                 SG          716     0.554     2.7          2.9          0.0          5.3          8.1          16.1
  • Linwood Tower PF           001     0.588     2.0          3.7          0.0          3.1          6.0          16.1
  • Timothy Halle                 SG          683     0.476     2.9          2.9          0.0          5.1          6.3          16.1
  • Thomas Williams SF           894     0.539     2.0          3.6          1.3          5.0          8.3          16.3
  • Zachery Lewis                 C             834     0.488     2.7          6.3          9.3          7.1          17.4        16.3
  • Jefferson Winder PG          785     0.540     2.6          3.1          0.0          4.1          6.4          16.3
  • Daniel Stevenson PG          750     0.551     1.9          4.0          0.0          5.6          9.3          16.4
  • Hassan Pomeroy SG          839     0.584     1.6          3.1          0.0          3.4          8.0          16.4
  • George Bayles                 PF           000     0.304     2.1          3.6          0.0          5.1          5.0          16.6
  • Andrew Raber                 PG          091     0.643     2.0          2.6          0.0          5.7          6.4          16.6
  • Cornelius Williams SG          818     0.613     1.9          2.6          0.0          4.6          5.1          16.6
  • Lazarus Brock                 PF           250     0.652     2.1          3.0          0.0          4.9          4.3          16.7
  • Dino Bruns                 SG          875     0.582     2.0          3.9          0.0          7.0          10.7        16.7
  • Herb Serrato                 C             818     0.599     1.1          2.7          0.0          4.3          5.7          16.9
  • Blaise Godin                 PF           000     0.229     2.1          5.9          0.0          5.6          8.6          16.9
  • Brice Oliver                 PG          695     0.529     1.6          4.7          0.0          5.0          6.4          16.9
  • Reid Chick                 SF           918     0.621     1.0          2.9          0.1          4.9          6.7          16.9
  • Shelton Britton                 PG          723     0.569     1.6          4.3          0.0          5.3          6.3          16.9
  • David Poland                 SF           857     0.549     1.4          4.0          0.0          5.3          7.1          16.9
  • Kevin Whitlock                 SG          693     0.535     2.0          3.0          0.0          3.6          4.7          16.9
  • Llewellyn Broermann PF           695     0.552     2.3          3.1          0.0          5.9          6.7          17.0
  • Ty Price SG          091     0.662     2.0          2.4          0.0          5.6          5.6          17.0
  • Eckbert Schmidt SF           644     0.488     1.6          4.0          0.0          6.7          8.1          17.0
  • Granville Paiz                 SF           150     0.342     1.4          4.1          0.0          5.7          7.7          17.1
  • Tom Hertz                 PG          750     0.506     1.9          3.1          0.0          4.1          7.9          17.3
  • Benjamin Deletombe C             000     0.275     2.1          3.6          3.3          5.6          6.7          17.3
  • Arlen Epps                 C             000     0.351     1.7          3.3          0.3          6.3          7.0          17.3
  • Valerijs Zizilevs                 SF           807     0.612     1.3          3.9          0.0          3.1          5.6          17.4
  • Stretch Armstrong SF           782     0.490     1.9          2.9          0.0          3.9          5.0          17.6
  • Henry William                 PG          807     0.526     1.9          3.7          0.0          3.0          5.9          17.6
  • Jeffrey Covert                 C             000     0.265     1.4          2.7          2.9          4.4          7.4          17.6
  • Bennie Bryant                 PG          750     0.562     2.6          2.0          0.0          4.9          6.0          17.7
  • Roylen Fillum                 SG          875     0.640     1.0          2.9          0.0          4.1          4.9          17.7
  • Ned Kellner                 PF           000     0.324     0.9          3.6          0.0          4.6          7.1          17.7
  • Antonio Sprewell SG          708     0.523     2.1          3.6          0.0          4.0          6.6          17.9
  • Omar Rozier                 SF           000     0.329     1.4          4.0          0.0          3.7          6.4          17.9
  • Sleepy Johnson PF           000     0.279     2.0          4.6          0.7          5.0          8.1          17.9
  • Kyle Ochoa                 SG          750     0.592     0.9          3.9          0.0          4.1          6.9          18.0
  • Clinton Baker                 SF           750     0.580     0.9          5.0          0.0          4.7          8.6          18.0
  • J. McMahon                 SG          0.000     0.323     1.4          3.1          0.0          5.0          9.0          18.0
  • Frank Caines                 SG          827     0.576     1.7          3.3          0.0          4.6          7.9          18.3
  • Hobert Ramos                 SG          869     0.556     1.3          3.1          0.0          3.4          8.7          18.3
  • Gregory McClure SG          900     0.594     2.3          2.9          0.0          5.3          6.3          18.3
  • Mac Swinford                 PF           923     0.577     1.1          4.6          1.0          6.4          9.4          18.4
  • Charles Soares                 SF           000     0.310     1.6          2.6          0.0          5.4          6.9          18.4
  • Buck Lee                 PF           546     0.448     2.3          3.7          0.0          5.1          6.1          18.4
  • Ermin Zeleznik                 SF           000     0.335     1.0          3.9          0.0          3.6          6.1          18.6
  • Lou Melville                 C             000     0.283     1.3          5.9          4.9          6.3          11.4        18.6
  • Kirk Griffin                 PF           750     0.514     1.7          5.0          0.0          4.9          9.6          18.6
  • Kenneth Ruble                 SG          750     0.591     1.3          3.1          0.0          4.3          6.9          18.6
  • Buster Clyburn                 C             000     0.308     1.9          4.4          0.4          4.6          7.1          18.6
  • Jonathon White PF           200     0.679     2.4          4.1          0.0          4.7          10.0        18.6
  • Arne Ott                 SG          500     0.435     2.0          4.1          0.0          5.7          7.1          18.6
  • Donald Wyman SG          750     0.582     1.0          3.9          0.6          5.0          9.6          18.7
  • Lyle Muldoon                 PF           000     0.262     2.9          3.6          1.9          5.7          8.3          18.7
  • Baldomero Menendez SG          500     0.494     1.9          5.4          0.0          4.4          9.4          18.9
  • Mel Chong                 PG          200     0.657     2.0          4.4          0.0          5.4          6.0          18.9
  • Berry Doane                 SF           001     0.589     3.3          4.0          0.0          4.9          8.9          18.9
  • Jeremiah Vang                 PF           701     0.492     1.9          3.7          2.1          6.1          10.1        18.9
  • Ray Angle                 PG          683     0.474     1.9          3.4          0.0          7.4          8.9          18.9
  • Lawrence Brown C             000     0.283     2.6          2.7          0.0          4.1          6.1          19.0
  • Haulani Kamalei PF           000     0.316     1.1          2.7          0.0          5.1          6.4          19.0
  • Lyndon Rhinehart PF           000     0.250     1.9          3.9          1.7          6.1          8.3          19.0
  • Chris Acklin                 SF           059     0.643     1.0          3.4          0.0          4.7          8.4          19.1
  • Robbie Childers SF           938     0.622     2.0          2.3          0.0          5.1          6.1          19.1
  • Deshawn Alfaro SG          716     0.448     2.6          4.0          0.0          5.6          10.9        19.3
  • Terrence Massey SF           375     0.444     1.9          4.6          0.0          4.0          7.3          19.3
  • Guilhem Lamerand SF           000     0.274     1.3          5.3          0.0          2.9          7.4          19.3
  • Lamar Cox                 PG          750     0.543     1.7          4.7          0.0          4.9          8.4          19.4
  • Donnie Love                 PF           000     0.242     2.3          3.4          4.9          5.6          10.7        19.4
  • Willie Thomas                 C             818     0.549     1.4          3.9          0.0          5.1          8.3          19.4
  • Neville Kahler                 SG          600     0.520     2.1          3.6          0.0          5.3          7.0          19.6
  • Bobo Reynolds                 PF           000     0.349     1.9          4.7          0.0          4.4          8.4          19.6
  • Darrell Goldsmith C             000     0.281     1.3          4.0          0.0          5.4          6.6          19.6
  • Danilo Smith                 PG          000     0.272     3.0          2.9          0.0          5.9          9.3          19.6
  • Pearl McGarry                 SF           644     0.506     1.3          2.6          0.0          4.4          6.0          19.7
  • Doug Davis                 SG          167     0.731     1.3          3.6          0.0          4.0          9.9          19.9
  • Robert Bobb                 PG          857     0.561     1.3          2.3          0.0          5.0          6.6          19.9
  • Chris Diaz                 PF           000     0.256     2.0          2.6          0.0          5.6          4.6          19.9
  • Wimpy Critchfield C             000     0.260     2.0          4.0          0.0          5.1          7.0          20.0
  • Gervais Calloart SF           875     0.612     1.1          5.0          0.0          4.6          6.0          20.1
  • Rocco Sanchez                 SF           000     0.279     1.1          4.9          2.0          3.7          12.0        20.1
  • Darrel Westmoreland SG          500     0.474     2.4          3.4          0.0          4.0          7.7          20.3
  • Jayson Houle                 SF           750     0.447     3.3          1.7          0.0          5.4          7.9          20.3
  • Charles Nunn                 SF           375     0.369     2.1          3.6          0.0          5.1          9.0          20.4
  • Mathew Norwood PF           000     0.283     1.7          3.9          0.0          4.4          8.7          20.7
  • Ralph Anderson PG          000     0.219     1.6          2.7          0.0          7.0          8.9          20.7
  • Tyrone Davidson SF           500     0.492     0.7          3.0          0.0          3.9          5.9          20.9
  • Hancho Durrant PF           530     0.441     2.1          3.0          0.0          6.4          9.7          20.9
  • Jae McChesney SG          885     0.572     1.0          3.7          0.0          5.6          8.4          20.9
  • Jamey Carlisle                 PF           000     0.282     2.0          4.9          0.3          5.0          11.3        20.9
  • Gilbert Scanlan                 PG          000     0.245     3.0          4.9          0.0          6.9          9.4          20.9
  • LaMar DeAngelo C             000     0.283     1.0          2.6          0.0          5.4          6.7          21.0
  • Quentin Williams C             000     0.294     1.7          3.9          0.0          5.6          9.3          21.1
  • Sean Lopez                 C             000     0.221     2.6          4.6          0.0          5.3          10.0        21.1
  • Curtis Allen                 SF           938     0.572     1.3          5.7          0.0          4.6          10.7        21.3
  • Thomas Pharr                 SG          693     0.464     2.0          3.4          0.0          5.1          6.1          21.6

Just to explain some of the Stats: 3pt efficiency means that if a player attempts 10 3pt shots, the efficiency score is the chance that he will score 20 points (not 30 points) in those 10 attempts. That means if the efficiency score is 100 the player will make 6.666 of those 10 shots and score the 10 points.

TS% is the same as it is in the WBA stats sheet. Rebounds; Blocks; Steals; Fouls; Opp pts are all per game.

From a scouting perspective for the draft, we look at stats that just really stand out. For example: You take a look at Doug Davis and notice he has a TS% of .731. That alone makes him a player that we would take a chance on. Knowing that when he is on the floor for his 2 – 5 minutes a game that he wont just throw up bricks or that he will camp on the perimeter and sink 2 or 3 in his minutes. That’s great efficiency and virtually no liability to a team for a player that will probably make the minimum salary his whole career. These are the kinds of stats that bring players like Al Mueller (Xtreme) into the league not to mention Darnell Kern (Hellcats).

Another stat I like to look at is the Orb. Berry Doane pulled down 3.3 per game. You may not think that is a lot but if you realize that each game only lasts about 15 minutes, you then realize that this translates into close to 10 Orb per 36 min of a WBA game.

In blocks we have a Zachery Lewis who stuffed 9.3 turkeys per game. It’s these types of revelations that come out when you start to dive deep into the raw data. Ultimately we understand that there is probably a good reason why these players aren’t in the top 15, but when it comes to bang for your salary buck, these are some great players to be looking at.

I will attach the complete data analysis to the posting announcement of this article. The analysis will contain the two spreadsheets that I created. The Rookie Draft and the rookie Combine Anyone is welcome to send me a message asking for more detail on how I did my calculations or came up with my interpretations.

Thank you Jerry for letting me pontificate on this subject matter. It was a pleasure visiting with you.

Jerry: Yes it was. Thank you Brent

This entry was posted in Editorial.

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